There is something unusual about Alabama entering the 2026 college football season.
The Crimson Tide are being overlooked.
At least by Alabama standards.
Alabama begins the season No. 13 in the AP Poll, its lowest preseason ranking since 2008, Nick Saban's second season in Tuscaloosa. SEC media members went even further, projecting the Crimson Tide to finish sixth in the conference.
For almost two decades, Alabama entered seasons asking whether it would win the national championship.
Now the question sounds different: is Alabama still one of the programs capable of winning it?
That may seem absurd for a team that finished 11-4 last season, reached the SEC Championship Game and won a College Football Playoff game.
But this is Alabama.
An 11-win season can still create doubts when it ends with Georgia winning the SEC Championship Game 28-7 and Indiana humiliating the Crimson Tide 38-3 in the Rose Bowl.
Kalen DeBoer enters his third season with something he has not really had since replacing Saban: a little room to surprise people.
And the player who could change Alabama's trajectory most dramatically is a sophomore quarterback who has barely played.
Keelon Russell.
Alabama Is Handing the Offense to a Five-Star Quarterback
Russell will open the season as Alabama's starting quarterback.
He appeared in only two games behind Ty Simpson last season, completing 11 of 15 passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers tell us almost nothing about what he will become.
His pedigree tells us considerably more.
Russell was a unanimous five-star recruit out of Duncanville, Texas, and was named both the Texas and national Gatorade Player of the Year as well as the Maxwell High School Player of the Year. Alabama officially named him the 2026 starter during preseason camp.
Now comes the enormous jump.
From 15 college passes to quarterbacking Alabama.
That would be intimidating enough anywhere.
At Alabama, the comparison list includes Bryce Young, Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, AJ McCarron and others who turned playing quarterback in Tuscaloosa into an NFL audition conducted in the middle of a national championship race.
Russell does not need to immediately become one of them.
But Alabama cannot afford for him to look like a first-year quarterback for very long.
The SEC schedule will not allow it.
Ryan Grubb May Be the Perfect Coach for This Transition
One reason for optimism is the continuity between DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Grubb returned to DeBoer's staff before last season after spending 2024 as the Seattle Seahawks' offensive coordinator. The two previously built explosive offenses together at Washington and Fresno State.
His first Alabama quarterback, Ty Simpson, threw for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2025 while Alabama quarterbacks threw only two interceptions in SEC play, the fewest in the conference.
That is an encouraging environment for Russell.
Grubb does not need the sophomore to win games by improvising constantly.
His offense can create space through formation, motion and vertical concepts while giving the quarterback defined opportunities.
The challenge will be figuring out how much Russell can handle immediately.
Physically, there should be very little question.
The interesting part will be how quickly he processes SEC defenses.
Alabama Still Has a Premier Receiver
Russell also inherits a legitimate No. 1 target.
Ryan Coleman-Williams enters his junior season after catching 49 passes for 689 yards and four touchdowns in 2025. SEC media selected him first-team preseason All-SEC, while the league's coaches placed him on the second team. He is also on the Biletnikoff Award watch list.
His sophomore season did not produce the enormous statistical breakout many expected after his spectacular freshman year.
But that may actually make him more interesting in 2026.
Alabama needs Coleman-Williams to become less of an occasional explosive weapon and more of a week-to-week focal point.
Russell needs a receiver he can trust on third down.
He needs someone who can win when the defense knows where the football is going.
And he needs someone capable of turning a simple throw into a touchdown when the quarterback is struggling.
Coleman-Williams has that ability.
If the Russell to Coleman-Williams connection becomes one of the SEC's best, Alabama's offense could improve quickly.
The Running Game Could Carry the Offense Early
Alabama should not have to put everything on Russell immediately.
Sophomore AK Dear is one of the most interesting young players on the roster.
Dear received only 19 carries last season, but turned them into 140 yards and three touchdowns, an average of more than seven yards per attempt.
Junior Daniel Hill provides a more physical complement at 6-foot-1 and 234 pounds. Hill rushed for 284 yards and six touchdowns last season while catching 28 passes for another 203 yards.
That gives Alabama options.
Dear can provide explosiveness. Hill can provide power and receiving ability.
For a young quarterback, that combination matters.
The best way to develop Russell may be to avoid forcing him to develop too quickly.
Run the football. Create manageable third downs. Use play action. Let Russell take calculated shots.
Then gradually expand the offense as the season develops.
That sounds straightforward.
At Alabama, nothing stays straightforward for long.
Michael Carroll Could Become the Next Great Alabama Lineman
The offensive line will determine whether that plan works.
The centerpiece is sophomore Michael Carroll, a 6-foot-6, 324-pound former five-star prospect who earned Freshman All-America honors last season after starting six games and seeing time at both tackle and guard.
He enters 2026 on the Outland Trophy watch list and was selected preseason second-team All-SEC.
Carroll has the physical profile of the kind of offensive lineman Alabama used to seemingly produce every season.
The question is whether the entire unit can develop around him.
A young quarterback behind an inconsistent offensive line is a dangerous combination.
A young quarterback with a dominant running game and clean pocket is something completely different.
Russell's development and Alabama's offensive-line development may ultimately be inseparable.
The Defense Is Why Alabama Can Win Immediately
If the offense is about projection, the defense is about established talent.
This may be one of the best secondaries in college football.
Cornerback Zabien Brown started all 15 games last season and produced two interception returns for touchdowns, including returns of 99 and 50 yards. SEC coaches and media both selected him first-team preseason All-SEC.
Then there is safety Bray Hubbard.
Hubbard led Alabama with four interceptions last season while recording 79 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, two sacks, six pass breakups and three forced fumbles. He earned All-America recognition and also enters 2026 as a first-team All-SEC selection.
Veteran safety Keon Sabb returns as well.
And sophomore corner Dijon Lee Jr., one of the most physically gifted defensive backs in the country at 6-foot-4, gained substantial experience as a freshman.
That is a remarkable amount of talent on the back end.
For a team breaking in a new quarterback, an elite secondary is incredibly valuable.
Alabama may not need Russell to win every game.
The defense may be able to win a few for him.
Yhonzae Pierre Could Be Alabama's Next Elite Pass Rusher
The secondary becomes even more dangerous if Yhonzae Pierre continues his development.
Pierre emerged last season with 14.5 tackles for loss and eight sacks, both team highs. He also produced nine quarterback hurries and three forced fumbles.
That is precisely what Kane Wommack's defense needs.
Pressure without constantly blitzing.
If Pierre forces quarterbacks to speed up their decisions while Brown, Hubbard and Sabb are waiting behind him, Alabama can create turnovers.
Wommack's defense forced 20 turnovers in 2025, including 11 interceptions and three pick-sixes.
This could become Alabama’s formula early in the season: play elite defense, create short fields, run the football and give Russell time to grow.
That sounds much more manageable than asking a sophomore quarterback to immediately become a Heisman candidate.
Kane Wommack Has Quietly Rebuilt the Alabama Defense
Wommack's tenure deserves more attention.
When Saban retired, one of the obvious questions was whether Alabama could remain Alabama defensively without perhaps the greatest defensive coach in college football history overseeing the program.
The answer has increasingly looked like yes.
Wommack's first Alabama defense in 2024 allowed only 17.4 points per game, 10th nationally, while forcing 28 turnovers.
The 2025 unit continued developing, particularly against the pass. Alabama led the SEC in passing-efficiency defense during conference games and finished second in passing yards allowed.
Now many of the most important players in the secondary return.
That continuity may be Alabama's greatest advantage.
The quarterback is new.
The defense is not.
Last Season Was Better Than People Remember
The final image of Alabama's 2025 season was ugly.
Indiana 38. Alabama 3.
But reducing last season to that score ignores what happened before it.
Alabama started with a disappointing 31-17 loss at Florida State and then responded by winning eight straight games.
That stretch included a 24-21 win at Georgia, a win at Missouri, a 37-20 victory over Tennessee, a road victory at South Carolina and a 20-9 win over LSU.
Alabama finished 7-1 in SEC play and atop the regular-season conference standings.
Then Oklahoma upset the Tide 23-21.
Georgia dominated the SEC Championship Game 28-7.
Alabama got revenge on Oklahoma with a 34-24 road win in the CFP first round.
And then Indiana overwhelmed the Tide in Pasadena.
That is a strange season.
But it is not evidence that Alabama has disappeared.
Alabama reached Atlanta. Alabama reached the playoff quarterfinal.
The problem is that Alabama used to expect to win those games.
That Is the Kalen DeBoer Question
DeBoer is now entering Year 3.
At some point, Alabama stops being the program he inherited and becomes the program he built.
The university clearly believes in him. Alabama extended DeBoer's contract through the 2032 season earlier this year.
There is plenty of evidence supporting that confidence.
DeBoer has won everywhere he has coached. His first two Alabama teams remained nationally relevant. He has successfully retained and recruited elite talent in a transfer-portal era. He brought Ryan Grubb back to run the offense. Kane Wommack has developed a legitimate Alabama-caliber defense.
But there is a difference between being very good and meeting the Alabama standard.
Saban altered the scale.
At most schools, reaching the SEC Championship Game and playoff quarterfinal would qualify as an excellent season.
At Alabama, people wonder what went wrong.
DeBoer knew that when he accepted the job.
2026 may tell us how close he is to truly owning it.
The Schedule Gives Alabama a Better Start This Time
There is one significant difference from last season.
Alabama does not open on the road against Florida State.
Instead, East Carolina comes to Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 5.
That is exactly what a team starting a new quarterback needs.
Then Alabama travels to Kentucky before hosting Florida State.
The Florida State rematch will be interesting.
Last year's 31-17 loss in Tallahassee immediately changed the narrative surrounding Alabama's season.
This time the Seminoles come to Tuscaloosa.
If Russell is comfortable by Week 3 and Alabama gets revenge convincingly, the No. 13 ranking could disappear quickly.
October Is Where We Find Out
The season truly changes on October 10.
No. 3 Georgia comes to Bryant-Denny Stadium for a night game.
That game will tell us almost everything we need to know.
Alabama beat Georgia in Athens last season.
Georgia responded by hammering the Tide in Atlanta.
Now comes Round 3.
And immediately afterward: at No. 20 Tennessee. Then: No. 8 Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa.
Three consecutive Saturdays. Three major SEC games. Three completely different challenges.
If Alabama goes 2-1 through that stretch, the Tide remain firmly in the playoff conversation.
Go 3-0?
Forget No. 13.
Alabama would again look like a national championship contender.
Georgia at Bryant-Denny Could Be the Defining Game
The symbolism is obvious.
Georgia has become the SEC program against which Alabama is increasingly measured.
Under Saban, Alabama repeatedly blocked Georgia from reaching the top.
Now Kirby Smart's program begins 2026 ranked No. 3 and favored to win the SEC, while Alabama starts No. 13 and was picked sixth in the league.
That is a reversal of roles.
A victory would be meaningful beyond the standings.
It would demonstrate that Alabama has not surrendered its place in the SEC hierarchy.
It would also give Keelon Russell the kind of national stage that can transform a young quarterback's season.
Beat Georgia at night in Bryant-Denny and everyone starts paying attention.
Tennessee Has Become a Real Rivalry Again
One week later Alabama goes to Knoxville.
That matters.
The Tennessee series spent years becoming increasingly predictable during Saban's tenure.
It is unpredictable again.
Tennessee is ranked No. 20 entering the season, and Neyland Stadium will provide Russell with one of the loudest environments he has ever experienced.
For a first-year starting quarterback, this may actually be the more revealing test.
Georgia tells us whether Alabama has elite talent.
Tennessee tells us whether Russell can operate when communication becomes difficult and momentum starts moving against him.
Texas A&M Comes Next
Then No. 8 Texas A&M arrives in Tuscaloosa.
This is why the SEC is so unforgiving.
Survive Georgia and there is Tennessee. Survive Tennessee and there is Texas A&M.
The Aggies begin the season five spots ahead of Alabama in the AP Poll.
By October 24, that ranking could look ridiculous.
Or completely justified.
Alabama gets the advantage of playing this one at home, but it completes a three-game sequence likely to determine whether the Tide are chasing an SEC Championship or simply trying to secure a playoff berth.
And Then Comes Death Valley
After an open date, Alabama travels to No. 11 LSU on November 7.
There may not be a more difficult environment for a young quarterback than a meaningful night game in Baton Rouge.
Alabama dominated LSU defensively last season in a 20-9 victory.
But the 2026 game is on the road.
By this point, Russell will no longer be allowed to call himself inexperienced.
He will have played Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A&M.
The LSU game is where Alabama will expect him to look like Alabama's quarterback.
Vanderbilt Is No Longer a Joke
The following week Alabama travels to Vanderbilt.
That sentence would have barely registered a few years ago.
It should now.
Vanderbilt beat Alabama in 2024 and has become a legitimate SEC opponent.
The Commodores are unranked entering 2026 but received AP votes.
That makes Nashville exactly the sort of game Alabama cannot overlook after LSU.
Elite teams lose seasons in obvious rivalry games.
They also lose them when they survive the rivalry game and mentally exhale one week later.
DeBoer's Alabama has to become better at avoiding those lapses.
The Iron Bowl Returns to Tuscaloosa
And then, of course: Auburn. November 28. Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Iron Bowl.
Alabama won 27-20 at Auburn last season.
Records will not matter much by the time these teams meet again.
They rarely do.
For Russell, this will be his first Iron Bowl as the starting quarterback.
That alone makes it one of the most important games of his season.
Alabama quarterbacks are remembered for championships.
They are also remembered for what they do against Auburn.
Is Alabama Really the 13th-Best Team in the Country?
Maybe in September.
I am less convinced that will be true in November.
There are obvious reasons voters are cautious.
The quarterback has barely played. Several established offensive players are gone. The running back room is young. The SEC is loaded. And Alabama’s last game was a 35-point playoff loss.
But there are also reasons Alabama could outperform its ranking substantially.
The secondary could be elite. Pierre gives the Tide a proven pass rusher. Coleman-Williams is a legitimate No. 1 receiver. Carroll could anchor the offensive line. Dear has breakout potential.
And Russell might eventually become the most talented quarterback DeBoer has coached at Alabama.
That is a lot of upside for the No. 13 team.
The Strange Advantage of Being Overlooked
Alabama has spent nearly two decades carrying enormous expectations.
Every close victory was criticized. Every loss became national news. Every season without a championship felt incomplete.
This year’s team gets something different.
Georgia is the SEC favorite. Texas A&M starts eighth. Ole Miss is ninth. Oklahoma is tenth. LSU is eleventh. Alabama is thirteenth.
For perhaps the first time in an entire generation, Alabama can spend September climbing rather than defending its position.
That may help a young quarterback.
Russell does not have to protect a No. 1 ranking.
He gets to chase one.
TD Strike Prediction
Alabama may be one of the most difficult teams in the country to project.
The defense looks capable of winning a championship. The secondary might be among the nation’s best. The pass rush has an established centerpiece in Yhonzae Pierre. The offense has playmakers. The coaching staff has continuity.
But quarterback remains the most important position in football, and Alabama is handing it to a sophomore with 15 career college passes.
That creates enormous variance.
If Keelon Russell merely plays like a talented first-year starter, Alabama is probably an eight- or nine-win team navigating an unforgiving SEC schedule.
If Russell develops quickly under DeBoer and Grubb?
Then No. 13 may look absurd by October.
Prediction: Alabama finishes 10-2, returns to the College Football Playoff and remains in the SEC Championship race into November.
Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU create too many opportunities for an inexperienced quarterback to stumble for me to predict 12-0.
But the ceiling is absolutely higher than 10 wins.
There is a version of this Alabama team in which the defense becomes elite, AK Dear emerges at running back, Coleman-Williams becomes a true superstar and Russell grows into the next great Crimson Tide quarterback.
If that happens, Alabama could arrive in December looking nothing like the team voters ranked No. 13 in August.
That is what makes 2026 so interesting.
The Nick Saban era was built around Alabama beginning each season as the team everyone else was chasing.
Now Kalen DeBoer gets to find out what happens when Alabama becomes the hunter.
And the quarterback leading that chase is only getting started.
Keelon Russell does not have to recreate Alabama's past.
He may get the opportunity to define what Alabama becomes next.